Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
265 Texas Southern 23.8%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 6 -5.8      -0.1 181 -5.7 329 83.6 6 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Grambling St. 23.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 6 -5.9      -3.8 283 -2.1 230 73.0 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
277 Prairie View 20.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 12 - 6 -6.7      -3.2 268 -3.4 274 75.5 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
303 Jackson St. 14.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 7 -8.3      -7.2 338 -1.1 197 64.6 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
332 Alabama St. 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 9 - 9 -11.3      -5.7 319 -5.7 328 67.5 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
343 Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 8 - 10 -13.5      -9.2 347 -4.4 300 65.0 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 Alcorn St. 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 8 - 10 -13.8      -8.0 342 -5.8 330 65.5 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
346 Southern 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 11 -14.1      -9.1 346 -5.0 312 65.9 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
352 Alabama A&M 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -17.5      -12.2 351 -5.2 318 65.0 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
353 Mississippi Valley 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 24 5 - 13 -18.0      -10.0 349 -7.9 348 71.7 98 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Texas Southern 2.9 30.6 21.6 16.0 11.5 7.9 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.4
Grambling St. 3.0 30.3 21.1 15.6 12.0 8.3 5.4 3.3 2.4 1.0 0.5
Prairie View 3.2 25.6 20.4 16.2 12.8 9.5 6.5 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.6
Jackson St. 3.8 17.2 16.9 16.6 14.2 12.0 8.7 6.4 4.1 2.7 1.2
Alabama St. 5.1 7.3 9.7 12.5 13.5 14.3 13.2 11.2 9.1 6.0 3.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6.1 3.3 5.6 8.1 9.8 12.5 14.1 14.5 13.0 11.3 7.9
Alcorn St. 6.2 3.1 5.5 7.8 9.7 12.2 13.5 14.2 13.9 11.5 8.6
Southern 6.3 2.8 4.8 7.1 9.4 11.9 13.8 14.6 14.4 12.5 8.8
Alabama A&M 7.7 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.5 9.6 12.6 17.0 20.5 24.6
Mississippi Valley 7.9 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 9.3 11.8 16.4 21.9 26.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.3 8.6 10.6 12.1 12.7 13.3 10.6 8.2 4.6 1.6
Grambling St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.6 7.0 8.5 10.5 12.5 12.7 12.3 11.0 7.6 4.7 1.7
Prairie View 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.9 5.6 7.8 9.7 11.2 12.0 12.5 11.4 9.6 6.6 3.5 1.1
Jackson St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.6 7.8 9.5 11.3 12.0 12.3 10.4 9.0 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.6
Alabama St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.8 5.6 8.0 10.0 10.9 12.0 11.1 10.5 9.0 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.2 9.0 11.2 11.8 11.6 10.9 9.3 7.2 5.3 3.5 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.0 5.2 7.2 9.7 11.0 11.9 11.7 10.3 8.8 7.0 5.3 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southern 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.4 8.0 10.2 11.2 12.0 11.7 10.2 8.7 6.7 4.8 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Alabama A&M 5 - 13 1.8 5.7 9.1 11.6 13.1 13.2 12.1 10.1 8.0 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 5 - 13 2.3 6.1 9.7 12.2 14.2 12.8 11.8 9.7 7.4 5.5 3.8 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 30.6% 21.8 7.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Grambling St. 30.3% 21.6 7.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Prairie View 25.6% 17.4 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
Jackson St. 17.2% 11.3 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Alabama St. 7.3% 4.1 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.3% 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 3.1% 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern 2.8% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 19.5 76.2 0.0%
Grambling St. 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 19.7 76.8 0.0%
Prairie View 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 17.8 79.9 0.0%
Jackson St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 13.2 85.9 0.0%
Alabama St. 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.7 93.0 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3 96.6 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 96.5 0.0%
Southern 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.1 96.8 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 23.8% 16.1% 16.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 23.2% 16.7% 15.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 20.1% 15.3% 13.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 14.1% 11.9% 8.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 7.0% 6.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.4% 3.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.5% 3.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 3.2% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 62.2% 0.6 37.8 62.2
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0